Tony Penna, SRA President will be the moderator. Continuing the gradual downwards trend in the Labor primary vote, in the 2013 election, Labor was returned with a primary vote of less than 32 percent. That is what is putting the greens in contention in both seats. Rebuild of State Road 192/Hollywood Boulevard intersection, including Evans Road. Subscribe today. The top two issues in the community I represent are affordable housing and homeless social issues. But, because the margins are so slim, what favours Labor is that it wont take much of a change to how votes are breaking (either Libs or Greens start doing worse) for them to stay in the top two and win. Crossing Hotham Street is where you notice an immediate difference. Harbour Master's Directions & Port Information Guide, Notices to Mariners & Operational Instructions. The Melbourne City Council includes a mayor, a vice mayor and five council members. Please note that ballot preparation procedures vary by state and between jurisdictions within states. It was replaced by the division of Macnamara which had almost identical boundaries. The electorate was created at the time of Australian Federation in 1901 and was one of the original 65 divisions contested at the first federal election. I was thinking Mcnamara was a certain Labor retain at least on Election night but at this stage I think Greens would be favourites to win Mcnamara. To date, we can boastOrion180 (300 jobs), Northrop Grumman (400 to 600 jobs), and creating less government for our small-business owners. It was located to the south of Melbourne's central business district and covered an area of approximately 40km2 around the north and north-eastern shores of Port Phillip Bay. This may be due to Melbourne having a sitting Green MP in Adam Bandt, or be related to Labor pulling out of campaigning after disendorsing its candidate. Where possible, the natural flow and filtering of runoff must be restored. Phil, the AEC have already done a 3CP count for all the ballots currently counted, and published it. Eg. This is a mathematical certainty that labour will be in top two primary count. Melbourne Ports was won in 1906 by Labor candidates James Mathews. The votes in these categories already counted are favouring Greens by a good enough margin to close the gap between Labor and Greens on primary which makes it likely for Greens to overtake Labor on minor Party preferences at the 3pp stage. It included Port Melbourne, but also included a number of middle and upper middle class suburbs such as Albert Park, Balaclava, Caulfield, Elwood, Middle Park, Ripponlea, South Melbourne and St Kilda. Demographics (2019 boundaries): Median weekly household income: $1,866 (Australia $1,438) People over 65: 12.2% (Australia 15.8%) Australian born: 54.5% (Australia 66.7%) Ancestry: Chinese 5.6% 2018 State Election: A Meet the Candidates for the lower house seat of Albert Park was held at 6pm, on Tuesday, 30th October in the Boyd Community Hub. Labor's results ranged from 41.1% at Caulfield Presbyterian Church to 78.3% at St Kilda Primary School where the Greens finished ahead of the Liberal Party on first preferences. Mandy Nolan Candidate for Richmond Steph Hodgins-May Candidate for Macnamara (prev. (My prediction is around 33.5% LIB, 33.3% ALP, 33.2% GRN). (Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining.). No way Labor comes 3rd. Boyd Community Hub, 207 City Rd Southbank. What a fascinating race this has turned into. It includes vmost of the City of Melbourne north of the Yarra, almost all of the City of Yarra, and a small slice of Moreland Council. I think this is more important then people think. Long post I know, but in short the Liberals are already ahead of Labor on 3CP terms, and if vote continue to break exactly as they have been, they grow their lead while the Greens continue to catch up. Trent had already calculated the breakdown of the primary vote for Albert Park based on the May federal results. ALP got 31.8% of the primary vote but 62.3% of the 2PP. Victorian Ports Corporation (Melbourne) Level 5, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne 3000. Patreons analysis is on the money and there could actually be up to 6500 votes left if more postals are received (the last batch actually did break 26 LIB, 29 ALP, 33 GRN, 12 OTH which is enough to keep the Liberals ahead of Labor). Labors primary votes in all three of these electorates went backwards which should set Red flags in Labor HQ. The video of the event is the second of the three videos below. The four candidates are incumbents Diana Adams, John Dittmore and Andrea Young, along U.S. Navy veteran William Johnson, who sits on the city's Board of Adjustments. William Bowe actually says he thinks its trending Greens. With the projected population expansion expected to be over 40,000, fire and safety services need to be controlled by the city, not contracted out. Dont get me wrong. The Greens still got the increase in the vote with the independent running and as seen on the VEC website, most Independent voters put the Greens above Labor and Liberals. And all it will take is slightly weaker flows for them, particularly from the postal votes, or just less postal votes being returned, for Labor to stay ahead of them. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. He represented construction workers before the Cole Building Industry Royal Commission, represented unions and workers during the Ansett insolvency, and states that he was involved in prosecuting some of Australia's biggest clothing companies for breaches of laws designed to prevent the exploitation of outworkers. i would part of the story here is that the Libs overperfomed in Elite areas such as Albert Park compared to May. The second last exclusion (UAP) is what leapfrogged the Liberals from 3rd to 1st and eliminated the Greens. This month, council members are voting on Melbourne's proposed $242 million total city budget for 2022-23, among other topics. Occupation: Founder and owner of Plastics & Paper Direct, Education: Attended Brevard Community College, Political/government/civic experience:2003-04 Melbourne Zoning Board of Adjustment;2004-05 Melbourne Airport Authority;Space Coast League of Cities representative to Space Coast Transportation Planning Organization;2004-12 Melbourne Council Member District2 (vice mayor in 2006 and2010);2013 Brevard CountyCitizens Advisory Board;2018-22 Melbourne City Council Member District 2, Website, Facebook, other social media pages/links: Website under construction. It is absolutely ridiculous that the ABC and Pollbludger is being conservative on their calls. Four incumbents Mayor Paul Alfrey,District 1 Council Member Tim Thomas,District 3 Council Member Yvonne Minus andDistrict 5 Council Member Mimi Hanley are not on the ballot this fall. On the Macnamara count, Kevin Bonhams blog of its post-election count says his model projects PVs of: Labor 30.3 Greens 30.2 Liberal 29.7. Road improvements and joint cooperation with the state of Florida, Melbourne Airport and Brevard County to widen Ellis Road. Former Labor members include Bill Maloney 1904-1940, Arthur Calwell 1940-1972, Ted Innes 1972-1983, Gerry Hand 1983-1993 and Lindsay Tanner 1993-2010. In 3CP terms after minor preferences, thats 32.2% LIB, 30.5% ALP, 37.3% GRN if postals continue flowing like the last batch too (and every single batch has been moving in that same direction). AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time). [2] The new name was gazetted on 13 July 2018, and was first used at the 2019 federal election. After attending Mount Scopus College, Josh graduated from Monash University with a Bachelor of Arts, majoring in Political Studies. The Green line plots the Green two-candidate preferred vote against Labor 2007-2013 and against the Liberal Party in 2016 and 2019. Its a nailbiter and is shaping up for all 3 to be over 33% in the 3PP count (would that be the closest 3PP count ever? Australia 2010 Australia 2013 Australia 2016 Australia 2019 Australia 2022 By-election Candidate numbers City of Brisbane Covid-19 Data . Before being won by Josh Burns in 2019, the electorate had been represented by only five members in 113 years. Twitter: @JDGallop. The West Finger Pier is a good vantage point to view the ships. Cruise seasons usually run from spring to autumn and Station Pier is closed to the public when cruise ships are berthed. Conceding and declaring victory is only a formality. Further, I will continueto support the creation of a West Melbourne Fire Department. But that so far the postals have been better for Labor than the model projects so they are most likely to retain. "It must be in a smart, resilient and low-impact manner., Occupation: Small-business owner and nonprofit executive director, Education: Doctorate of public administration (in-progress); master's in educational leadership; bachelor's in elementary education. Adams also points to the importance of focusing on the towns infrastructure needs. Can somebody explain why if the AEC are doing a 3 way count here, why they are not doing one in Richmond which seems (to me) a seat where the Greens could still get up or at least be second. First Preference Results 1983-2019, The Labor lean of Melbourne Ports/Macnamara has declined at recent elections, but as discussed above, the three-way nature of the contest means the after preferences count is the secondary hurdle Labor must clear to win. Incredibly close, basically meaning minor preference flows could eliminate any one of the 3, especially since 4 of the minors are right wing and Labor are likely to get the least minor preferences. On those boundaries, for decades it was one of the safest Labor seats in the country, and Labor usually easily retained it even during severe nationwide defeats for Labor. If Labour end up not winning Macnamara, it will be a case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Should the Greens get up here, I can see all Labor arguments for keeping the Caulfield tail mysteriously evaporate before the 2024 redistribution. First Issue: Restoring the Indian River Lagoon. Council members earn $7,475 annually, plus a $255 monthly travel . New developments cannot be at the expense of our existing neighborhoods. The electorate includes the suburbs of Port Melbourne, South Melbourne, Middle Park, South Yarra, St Kilda, Balaclava, Elwood and parts of Elsternwick and Caulfield. J.D. Liberal 30.69% 4. Had the 2013 election's 66% flow of Liberal preferences to Labor occurred in 2010, then Adam Bandt would not have won Melbourne. If anything, I would be extremely worried if I was Josh Burns. The current 3CP order after about 87,000 votes is 1 Libs, 2 Labor, 3 Greens. I will support the septic-to-sewer program, install more baffle boxes, encourage the use of low-impact development, and decrease our dependence on Lake Washington as our water source. . But Im tipping Burns to hold in a Labor v Greens count. But I agree with comments on this blog that both Bowes and Green have not called it for Labour, which does not mean that they believe Greens have it, just that it is too close to call. Antony Green is the ABC's Chief Elections Analyst. Results ranged from 56.9% at Library at the Dock in Docklands to 87.4% at the Sacred Heart School in Fitzroy. Also the issue for Josh Burns is that most of the population growth is occurring in the west of the seat such as Southbank/Fishermens Bend. Immediately below is the video of the event. I can see the Greens overtaking Labor. Agents must notify Ports Victoria of any changes to this schedule. Michael Organ had previously won Cunningham for the Greens in 2002, but this was at a by-election. I also support a public/private partnership between government and private enterprise to create a network of community land trusts throughout the county to provide long-term stewardship and conservation of open space and natural resources. In most remaining vote types, the Liberals are currently outpacing Labor by between 1-3% in 3CP terms (despite Labor getting a higher primary vote), and the Greens are currently outpacing Labor by between 5-8%. Use tab to navigate through the menu items. Contact Gallop at 321-917-4641 or jgallop@floridatoday.com. To make a comment or suggest a change to the election site, pleasecontact us. I will work diligently with the council and various boards to direct and focus attention to these significant concerns. Locations and shipping agents' contact details, below. Schultz is an Elwood local and long been a passionate advocate for social and environmental change and is campaigning for change to agricultural practices, for both animal protection and to combat the effects of climate change. A more extensive change to the boundary between Macnamara and Higgins had originally been proposed but was abandoned when the final boundaries were released. Liberal vote recovered in parts of Caulfield which isnt good news for Labor holding onto Macnamara at the next election. Labor will emphatically opposite it. At first glance that looks like Labor would outperform the Liberals right? City Council members also could soon discuss the feasibility of building their own city-run fire department. The Liberals are still 3rd on the primary vote, so unless they can improve on absentees,postals,provisionals then they will remain 3rd. Political/government/civic experience: West Melbourne City Council (appointed June 2022); secretary of Space Coast Field of Dreams board; West Melbourne Citizens Leadership Academy; former deputy chair of West Melbourne Parks & Recreation board; former Brevard educator; Transportation & Intergovernmental Relations Policy Committee member; member of the Melbourne, Palm Bay, Titusville and Cocoa Beach chambers of commerce; and LEAD Brevard board member. Here is a rundown of the candidates, based on answers to questionnaires from FLORIDA TODAY. Damches has a bachelor's degree in International Relations and worked in retail and fashion before working as a legal assistant. It will make a massive difference in how the Albanese government is seen. ALP 29,152 3. These kinds of investments drive responsible growth, Adams said. Of couse, the Liberals could drop to third (especially with Dutton as leader and Libs choosing to abandon inner city seats) even on the current boundaries anyway. Berth locations and shipping agents' contact details, below. Greens 31.50% 3. It is named in honour of Dame Annie Jean Macnamara DBE, 1899-1968. The 2020 City of Melbourne Council elections. Melbourne Ports had been a tight three-way contest in 2016, Labor's Michael Danby staying narrowly ahead of the Greens to eventually win a narrow victory over the Liberals on Green preferences. Libs to get Higgins back and Greens to make Macnamara notionally Green. The departure of Danby in 2019 saw a boost in Labor vote, though whether this was a coincidence with of consequence of Danby's departure is impossible to say. As in 2019 the Green candidate will be Steph Hodgins-May, the new Liberal candidate Christopher Ride. The margin has been changed to 4.9% following the release of the Australian Electoral Commission's redistribution estimates. If all the remaining votes, using Kevin Bonhams expectation of 1750 postal votes, break exactly as they currently are, I only have the Greens beating Labor by about 50 votes which would be an automatic recount. 3. He represented workers and their unions while a partner at Slater and Gordon, holding a position with the firm previously held by Julia Gillard. The LIB/ALP 2PP here will be Labors best since before Caulfield was in the seat and the Lib PV may be the lowest in 5-6 decades. Pht sng trc tip trn u Green Gully Cavaliers U21 vs Port Melbourne Sharks SC U21 AUS VPL U21 trong khun kh gii VQG Jordan full HD tc cao vi bnh lun min ph ti Trc Tip Bng . Heres a summary of the current state of play. A study reviewing the need for a city fire station could come before the mayor and the other six CityCouncil members by October. 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